Electricity Price Forecast

Electricity Price Forecast

Forecast changes in electricity retail prices for the business as usual scenario and a scenario in which low-carbon technologies are adopted consistent with meeting a 20% renewable energy target by 2020 and an emissions abatement target of 80% reductions on 1990 levels by 2050. It is assumed that there is no globally agreed emission trading scheme in place out to 2050, though existing carbon pricing systems and established climate policies are assumed to continue. All analysis shown was produced using Cambridge Modelling’s Low Carbon Simulator.

For more information on the modelling used, please see the accompanying briefing.

2 thoughts on “Electricity Price Forecast

  1. I wonder if you could unpack your assumptions a little bit, for example, is this in 2012 prices? What generating mix is assumed? what growth in energy demand is assumed? Is there a summary report you could send me on assumptions? thanks

    Dr Mark Hinnells
    Senior researcher, Environmental Change Institute,
    University of Oxford

    • Certainly, please see the answers below:

      > Is this in 2012 prices?
      Yes.

      > What generating mix is assumed?
      The scenario shown is the least-cost scenario. i.e. the mix of generation technologies is selected to achieve the most economical mix available while still meeting the requisite emissions and other low-carbon policy targets described in the figure caption. The modelled selection process also takes into account resource availability, industry growth dynamics and capacity, policy drivers (including feed-in tariffs, renewable energy targets, carbon pricing, etc.) and learning rate impacts for each generation technology.

      > What growth in energy demand is assumed?
      The EIA electricity generation forecast baseline is used which can be obtained from their report International Energy Outlook 2011.

      > Is there a summary report you could send me?
      Further information on the Low Carbon Simulator can be found at:
      http://www.cambridgemodelling.com/software/low-carbon-simulator/

      In addition, a summary report on the model and the approach it utilises is available at:
      http://www.cambridgemodelling.com/publications/Low_Carbon_Simulator.pdf

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